BEC Policy & Research Series

BEC Knowledge Library

Bibliography, References & Living Evidence Base, supporting the Creating Better Futures White Paper (Version 3.00)

Each entry states what the source is, how authoritative it is, which White Paper proposition it supports and whether it has been superseded. This is a living library: evidence status and links are reviewed monthly, most recently on 19 October 2026. Entries added or changed since 2 October 2026 carry a dated marker.

Every citation in the White Paper links to its entry here. Each entry also shows the short form used in the text and the chapters that cite it; select a chapter to see every source behind it.

Added 19 October 2026: synchronised with White Paper Version 3.00

Every citation in Version 3.00 of the White Paper now links straight to its entry here, and each chapter links to this library filtered to that chapter. Eight sources were added: the final report of the independent review into mental health conditions, ADHD and autism; current ONS labour-market and NEET statistics; the Work Foundation's 2026 employer survey; DWP research on Access to Work; DCMS research on civil-society delivery of public services; Young Futures Hubs guidance for local authorities; and a peer-reviewed study of the long-term wage scar from youth unemployment. Chapter tags now show where each source is actually cited. The Green Book link has been corrected and the Fonagy interim report marked as superseded. Every link was checked on 19 October 2026; none was dead.

Earlier review notices

Added 15 October 2026: diagnosis, bias and post-diagnostic support

Five sources added and NICE CG142 updated. Two explain how an earlier diagnosis can anchor later judgements (diagnostic momentum) and one sets out local-authority guidance on diagnostic overshadowing. Two balance this with evidence that adult autism diagnosis brings real benefits to self-understanding and wellbeing, while access to post-diagnostic support lags behind. The momentum evidence comes from general clinical settings and should not be presented as direct evidence about autism services.

What changed in the 2 October 2026 review

Fourteen sources added and nine updated. The Young Futures Hubs round has been allocated (42 new hubs, announced 15 September 2026). The 2021 to 2026 national autism strategy has expired with a successor promised but not yet published. Casey Commission reporting has moved to summer 2027. SEND reform now runs through the February 2026 Schools White Paper. New peer-reviewed evidence covers autistic employment and the mental-health harms of AI chatbots. Use the currency filter to show only added or updated entries.

Important correction to the AI evidence

The 2025 Therabot randomised trial (Heinz et al.) should not be cited as evidence that a chatbot is "equally effective as a consultant psychiatrist". The trial compared Therabot with a wait-list control, not with a consultant psychiatrist or an active psychotherapy comparator. It is important evidence of promise, symptom reduction, engagement and therapeutic alliance. The White Paper keeps its cautious formulation: conversational AI may augment support but does not establish equivalence to specialist clinical care.

Evidence-status discipline

Where possible, this library distinguishes established external evidence from BEC programme-monitoring evidence, practice-derived propositions, research questions and proposed models. This is particularly important for the 82% / 95% / >60% programme outcomes, the "sustainable capacity" framework and the Capability & Opportunity Bureau. These figures and concepts are drawn from BEC's own practice, not from the external sources catalogued below.

Evidence status key: Established evidence peer-reviewed research, systematic reviews, official statistics or authoritative clinical/professional guidance. Policy / statutory framework government policy, statutory guidance or legislation. BEC practice evidence internal monitoring or real-world programme data. Practice-derived proposition a concept from frontline experience requiring independent validation. Research question an explicit question for future study, not a conclusion. Supplementary / contextual useful background, not equivalent to peer-reviewed or statutory evidence.

Three internal BEC/Leicester project documents referenced in the White Paper (Leicester 2030 Strategic Briefing; Capability & Opportunity Bureau Nuffield outline application; Self-Development and Employability Pathway monitoring dataset) are withheld from this public library pending confirmation of final title, date, authorship and publication status, and will be added once confirmed.

Linking to this library: add # and an entry's ID to the page address to open that entry (use "Link to this entry" on any card to copy it), or add ?chapter= and a chapter number, or Summary, to open the sources for one chapter.