BEC Policy & Research Series

BEC Knowledge Library

Bibliography, References & Living Evidence Base — supporting the Creating Better Futures White Paper

Each entry states what the source is, how authoritative it is, which White Paper proposition it supports, and whether it has been superseded. This is a living library: evidence status and links are reviewed periodically, most recently reviewed 2 October 2026. Entries added or changed in that review carry a marker and show their own check date.

What changed in the 2 October 2026 review

Fourteen sources added and nine updated. The Young Futures Hubs round has been allocated (42 new hubs, announced 15 September 2026). The 2021 to 2026 national autism strategy has expired with a successor promised but not yet published. Casey Commission reporting has moved to summer 2027. SEND reform now runs through the February 2026 Schools White Paper. New peer-reviewed evidence covers autistic employment and the mental-health harms of AI chatbots. Use the currency filter to show only added or updated entries.

Important correction to the AI evidence

The 2025 Therabot randomised trial (Heinz et al.) should not be cited as evidence that a chatbot is "equally effective as a consultant psychiatrist". The trial compared Therabot with a wait-list control, not with a consultant psychiatrist or an active psychotherapy comparator. It is important evidence of promise, symptom reduction, engagement and therapeutic alliance — but the White Paper retains its cautious formulation: conversational AI may augment support; it does not establish equivalence to specialist clinical care.

Evidence-status discipline

Where possible, this library distinguishes established external evidence from BEC programme-monitoring evidence, practice-derived propositions, research questions and proposed models. This is particularly important for the 82% / 95% / >60% programme outcomes, the "sustainable capacity" framework and the Capability & Opportunity Bureau — figures and concepts drawn from BEC's own practice, not from the external sources catalogued below.

Evidence status key — Established evidence peer-reviewed research, systematic reviews, official statistics or authoritative clinical/professional guidance. Policy / statutory framework government policy, statutory guidance or legislation. BEC practice evidence internal monitoring or real-world programme data. Practice-derived proposition a concept from frontline experience requiring independent validation. Research question an explicit question for future study, not a conclusion. Supplementary / contextual useful background, not equivalent to peer-reviewed or statutory evidence.

Three internal BEC/Leicester project documents referenced in the White Paper (Leicester 2030 Strategic Briefing; Capability & Opportunity Bureau Nuffield outline application; Self-Development and Employability Pathway monitoring dataset) are withheld from this public library pending confirmation of final title, date, authorship and publication status, and will be added once confirmed.